Bob Rae's meditation

The Liberal party executive will release its leadership rules today, and over the summer BBQ circuit we’ll see any number of candidates throw their hat into the ring.

However Bob Rae, the current interim leader, is the first candidate on everyone’s mind. Bob is accomplished, astute, and a wily political veteran; but if he enters the leadership fight, it’s as the Harbinger of Death for the party.

The Honourable Mr. Rae does not deserve this fate, but reality is a harsh mistress.

The Canadian public has repeatedly heard how Rae made a promise to not run for the leadership. Hence, by simply entering the contest, he will build cynicism in the public mind (i.e. politicians never keep their word).

Even worse, a finish in the top 3 of the final vote would send a signal to Canadian’s that the Liberals are still mired in gamesmanship, bickering for power, not results. The public view stagnates, and then concludes that ‘liberals haven’t changed’.

I can’t imagine the attack ads if he wins. It would be a vicious, uphill battle for the party. With Rae as leader, small c conservatives will never vote for the party, the voters the party needs to gain power. A merger is almost inevitable.

Another scenario would see him retain his current position, as interim leader. This approach has several strategic advantages.

A power broker declining power for the next generation of Liberals is a show of humility and internal change. Modesty is rare in politics, and is humbling for the public. It’s also a timely contrast to the other party leaders. The perception of internal change is what the party needs to portray.

Unlike the NDP, whose interim leader was somewhat ridiculed, Rae would provide a powerful presence in the house, demonstrating the depth of the Liberal caucus.

Even after the new leader is chosen, Rae would continue to be an invaluable asset in the party. There is nothing stopping him from remaining a force within caucus, even after the next election.

But the last benefit eclipses all of the above.

Money.

Rae can raise funds for the party, instead of a leadership campaign. Political money is not free flowing in Canada. Too many candidates will dilute Liberal fundraising efforts, and there’s no question that Rae would take a significant portion of available funds. Cash should be the crucial factor when analyzing his participation.

Bob Rae has had circumstance conspire against him, and now he must choose between his party and himself. He can take one for the team, or he could be the harbinger of a two party country, a descent into American hyperbolic politics.

Rae can be a placeholder who passed on a torch, or the end of a diverse political discourse.

I don't envy his decision.